In years past, Missouri has been known as an election bellwether and has been the site of fierce presidential election battles. This year, however, it is no longer a swing state, as Governor Mitt Romney has held a consistent lead in the state. Nevertheless, due to its hotly contested Senate race, Missouri will still be a state to watch on Tuesday night.
Senator Claire McCaskill and Congressman Todd Akin are locked in a heated fight. Republicans thought this would be an easy seat to take back, but Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments, as well as some of his more extreme views, may cost him the race. McCaskill may have a negative approval rating, but Akin’s is in the tank, with only 29% of Missourians approving of him. Right now, McCaskill is about 3 to 5 points ahead of Akin. A late money surge for Akin, however, combined with Romney’s expected win in the state, may just be enough to put the congressman over the top.
This is going to be a tight race, and I’ll be monitoring it, as well as some other Missouri races, all night on Tuesday. I'm a Midwestern native, and went to school in Missouri for more than 20 years. I know the state, and I can't wait to follow its results!
PolicyMic will be covering the 2012 election from the state of Missouri LIVE. For live updates, bookmark and refresh this page.
UPDATE: 1:17 AM Looks like the KC and STL results are coming out, as the SOS race (Kander v. Schoeller) has suddenly gotten really tight, with a teeny tiny margin separating them. Clint Zweifel, Treasurer, is also suddenly in the lead.
UPDATE: 11:20 PM: PRESIDENT OBAMA IS REELECTED!!!
I don't have a gif to adequately express my excitement.
But I'll try:
UPDATE: 11:17 PM: Missouri being called for Romney by CNN. And holy crap, my neighborhood is going nuts - firecrackers, horns, etc. My Twitter feed is also going crazy.
FOX also calling it for Obama. Bret Baier is PISSED.
UPDATE: 11:15 PM NBC calling Ohio, and the election, for the President, but CNN (which we're watching) has not yet done so. Actually, I like relying on Fox.
UPDATE: 11:07 PM Wow, John Barrow kept his seat in Georgia? That's big.
OH NO WE FORGOT TO TUNE INTO THE DAILY SHOW! TURNING RIGHT NOW.
UPDATE: 11:03 PM Nice, Planned Parenthood.
Wisconsin goes to the President, and apparently the VA Senate race is won by Tim Kaine (a fellow Kansan!)?
The wine is still good. The Property reading is...well. I can tell you a little bit about equitable servitudes.
My roommate is upset that no one is reporting on Guam or Puerto Rico. SERIOUSLY.
UPDATE: 10:59 PM I wrote a short article on McCaskill's win, go see it here.
Nixon still winning. The Treasurer race has gotten super close, with incumbent Clint Zweifel trailing by only about 1,000 votes (around 50% reporting).
UPDATE: 10:49 PM Again, @AnaMarieCox's Twitter feed is gold:
UPDATE: 10:47 PM Yikes:
Apparently, a twitter hashtag that's going around: #bindersfullofsenators. LOL.
UPDATE: 10:34 PM As my friend Chris says, "Todd Akin wanted to be a senator, but the democratic process has ways of shutting that down."
Romney has a huge lead in Missouri. Governor Nixon still leading as well.
UPDATE: 10:22 PM In other Missouri news, Republicans seem to be winning all the statewide races except for Governor and Attorney General, where the 2 Democratic incumbents seem to be holding on. Again, this is only with about 20% reporting.
UPDATE: 10:13 PM Hold the phone. CBS is calling the MO Senate race for Senator McCaskill. HOLD THE PHONE. O. M. G.
I DRINK FROM THE KEG OF GLORY!!!
UPDATE: 9:56 PM I'm having trouble doing my work. Huh. Who would have thought?! =)
Are you drinking tonight? I am leisurely having a Hecht & Bannier Minervois 2007 (Syrah - Grenache). It is very nice.
The Kansas City Star says that Senator McCaskill is "cruising to victory." I think that's a silly headline (albeit an awesome one), because only 4% of the vote has been counted. From what I can tell on the MO SOS website, KC and St. Louis returns are not really in yet - those would give Senator McCaskill a boost.
Nevada & Iowa results coming in now. We'll see what happens!
UPDATE: 9:48 PM As for the other MO races, I think the statewide seats are the only ones to watch - Congressional seats won't be that exciting. That means Attorney General (D incumbent), Treasurer (D incumbent), Lt. Governor (R incumbent), and Secretary of State (open).
WOOOHOOO!!! CNN CALLS MA SENATE FOR ELIZABETH WARREN AND IN SENATE FOR DONNELLY!!!!
I can finally use this .gif!!
UPDATE: 9:31 PM 2% of precincts in, guys, and Claire's still ahead, by about 15,000 votes. This is going to be a lonnnnnnng night.
Oh hey, some really smart guy named Jerry, who I am sure has produced really amazing and awesome kids, has commented, asking about the MO Governor's race. Great question, D...I mean Jerry! MO SOS is reporting that the incumbent, Democratic Governor, Jay Nixon, is winning 52% to 44.9% for challenger Dave Spence. Again, this is only with 109 precincts in.
UPDATE: 9:38 PM SENATOR SHERROD BROWN WINS IN OHIO!!!
UPDATE: 9:16 PM OK, let's talk about restrictive covenants in residential housing. "Three eras have been identified in the history of American urban development."
Juuust kidding. This is, however, what I am reading for my Property class. Anyone else remember a feeling of utter hopelessness their 1L year?
NBC and Fox seemed to have called PA for the President. CNN is doing nifty county-level stuff with their maps, although no holograms this year =(
UPDATE: 9:14 PM Twitter says NBC has called MA Senate for Elizabeth Warren, but as far as I can tell only about 10% of the vote is in....??
Come on, EW!!
UPDATE: 9:10 PM With 42 precincts in, it's 49.9% for McCaskill, 43.5% for Akin. Romney up by over 6,000 votes.
UPDATE: 9:05 PM Yup, Kansas projected to go for Romney. SURPRISE! Except not.
In my congressional district in Kansas, there was no Democrat running against my Congressman. Yes, Kevin Yoder, the Sea of Galilee skinny-dipper. So I wrote in my name, since I'm old enough for the first time. I will get about 3 votes.
Maggie Hassan wins NH governor!!!
UPDATE: 8:58 PM There are still long, long lines to vote in Florida. This is absolutely INSANE. Anyone have problems voting? I voted absentee in Kansas, so no issues for me. My friend in Virginia waited 2 hours today to vote!
UPDATE: 8:43 PM OK, with 14 of 3387 precincts reporting, McCaskill leads Akin 51.7% to 42% (keep in mind, this is like 7,000 votes total). Romney still leads (I don't think that will change.
UPDATE: 8:41 PM Romney is leading by a little over 3,000 votes in my home state of Kansas (with 0.1% reporting). I am SHOCKED. SHOCKED, I TELL YOU.
UPDATE: 8:35 PM EST Heyyyyy, Chris Murphy won the CT Senate seat!!
This .gif is in honor of my roommate, who is a Germanophile. As a US/French citizen, I am iffy.
UPDATE: 8:29 PM EST Yeah, guys, there is not a big change in reporting - now there are 3 precincts instead of 2 reporting in. I know, I know, this is boring and not as fast as the debates. Sorry!
Anyways, you might be interested in a question posted by Tara McC in the comments, and my response:
"I posed this same question on an alternate article about this senate race but I am interested so I'm re-asking here as well because all things considered the race is pretty tight.
Do you think he has so much support because voters in that area agree with his very conservative social views or is it more that they are willing to overlook that for the big picture of the senate being GOP controlled?
I don't often ask questions I don't already know the answer to but, I am interested in this one. People in the MO areas insight would be especially appreciated but as always everyone should chime in."
I responded: "Honestly, I think it's more of the former. Here's an account of some female supporters:http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/09/28/small-but-dedicated-army-of-women-akin-supporters-pledge-to-stand-with-him/. I think people just overall support Akin and/or really dislike McCaskill - there is some virulent dislike for her around the state.
Many people may also be more anti-Democratic/Obama than they are pro-Akin, and just want to vote against any Democrats. I don't think, however, that a calculus regarding Senate majority control is a factor for most voters."
I don't know why some people have such an intense dislike for Senator McCaskill, honestly. Maybe they're just afraid of strong, awesome women? :)
By the way, Senator McCaskill's mom, Betty Anne, recently passed away. Betty Anne was incredible - really a force to be reckoned with. The Senator tweeted this about her mom in 2009:
"Mom held my hand when boys didn't like me cause I was too bossy and opinionated. She told me not to worry they would figure it out some day.”
How great is that? Words to live by.
UPDATE: 8:16 PM EST: First results pouring in! According to the Missouri Secretary of State's site, Romney is winning with 999 votes to Obama's 408, and Akin is winning with 767 votes to McCaskill's 580. Look, guys, I told you they were the first results.
UPDATE: 8:09 PM EST Watching CNN. Apparently, Governor Romney only wrote one speech - a victory speech. Isn't that tempting the wrath from high atop the thing? #westwing
UPDATE: 8:00 PM EST And the polls are closed! Here we go!
UPDATE: 7:51 PM EST Here is a map of the 2008 Presidential results in Missouri - it's from the Missouri Secretary of State's website.
The result of the 2008 race in the state was McCain 49.4%, Obama 49.3%. It will NOT be that close this time.
And here's a map (from Wikipedia, sorry - I can't find an official one!) of the results in the 2006 Senate race, when McCaskill beat the incumbent senator, Jim Talent:
So basically, McCaskill will need to again make some inroads into the bootheel (southeast part of the state), as well as in some other rural areas, to win, OR she will need a huge, huge turn out in Kansas City and St. Louis (the blue parts on the western and eastern edges of the state, respectively). She'll win those cities, but she needs to win big.
UPDATE: 6:57 PM EST Polls close in Missouri at 8 PM EST/7 PM CST, which means I am going to be eating and reading Property and Civil Procedure for a while. I'll try and do a few updates on exit polling/results from other states.
If you're going to look at exit polls, first read this guide of caution by Sarah Kliff (a fellow WashU grad!) on Wonkblog.
Also, disclaimer before the blog gets going: I've donated $ to both the Obama and McCaskill campaigns, and I was an intern for the 2006 McCaskill campaign. I am also a pretty fierce defender of both candidates. That does not mean, however, that I will obscure poll results or anything like that. I'll report facts, whatever they are.
UPDATE: 1:25 PM Who's excited?!?!