Geopolitical strategy is a terrible and beautiful thing at once. It is time we connected the dots on the great game in the Middle East.
The Arab Spring started in North Africa. Egypt was the trigger and the opening salvo was Libya. Syria erupted shortly after Libya, slowly consuming Syria President Bashar al-Assad’s war machine in a pitched war against an externally-funded patchwork of insurgents. The Gulf monarchies were ultimately untouched and Iraq was left to stew in its own mess. Predictably, the Syria debacle is on the verge of spilling over into Lebanon and this consequently has lit the fuse in Gaza, with Israel already itching for a ground offensive in the pesky territory.
Democracy is not the objective of the “Arab Spring.”
It is about Iran.
What we’re looking at is a gradual devolution of behind-the-scenes terrorism and its consequent dirty tricks towards a systemic war with Iran.
Here’s how it works: for Israel to even have a chance of being on the map, it needs an umbilical cord to the United States, and to have unstable neighbours. Thus, we have the endless cycle of surprise attacks courtesy of Israel, kleptocrats like Saddam who think they can get even, bloody coup d’états and civil wars, and for colour – the target practice parties Hamas and the IAF organize on each other on a fairly regular basis.
Really, a classic imperial strategy of divide and conquer – prod and poke, stoke the fires, sign a peace treaty, rinse and repeat. Only now, the risk of playing with the matches is that it might set off the whole pile of TNT.
In Iran, for all the polemics since 1979, the Ayatollahs have adopted an intelligent foreign policy of official defense, while doing the exact same thing as the West – proxies and subversive terrorism tactics. The regime has been frustrating, because we can’t find a reason to fight them, and that is the bane of all the hawks in Tel Aviv and Washington.
So, how to prevent Iran’s regional hegemony?
First, confuse the ally system by messing it up. Stability in the Middle East is Israel’s biggest security problem.
Second, the presence of Iranian spec-ops in Syria is already dangerously close to providing a reason for retaliation against Iran. With Hamas firing Iranian missiles and Hezbollah potentially getting involved, it is near certain that Iran is probably going to be recognized as an aggressor in a matter of days or weeks.
Third, the timing is convenient too – after the American elections, President Obama would have no choice, but to pick a side. Israel is otherwise doomed on its own, so that’s a no-brainer. But, the price for that may be Egypt.
The wild card in all of this is indeed Egypt, because President Mohamad Morsi is currently sending officials in Gaza in a moral show of support for the Palestinians. That may, or may not, be followed by a revamp of the Egyptian air force with Russian aircraft. Again.
Perhaps overthrowing Mubarak wasn’t the brightest idea we ever had.
To conclude: we’re observing a chain reaction with a transparent objective – war with Iran. The American elections were the timing trigger, so regardless of the winner, the rapid deterioration of regional security would put the president in a bind, with no choice other than supporting Israel. Engaging Iran’s allies eventually draws in Iran to the point where a declaration of a war on defensive grounds paints Iran as the aggressor. In the macabre aftermath to untold, one thing is certain: thousands of people are going to die.
At least the Arab Spring had one positive outcome: all these people are going to be democratically killed.