Cyprus Bank Crisis: What's Next For the Bankrupt Nation?
After the electoral successes of Syriza and Golden Dawn, the respective left and right extreme representatives of Greek politics, the status quo in Cyprus could also give way to a less tolerant stream of politics. Whether the EU would permit such a development may be now irrelevant, as Eurozone problems continue to occupy most of its attention.
The 56-seat parliament means that every single seat won carries high stakes and high visibility. Currently, the Democratic Rally and the Progressive Party of the Working People (PPWP) occupy respectively 20 and 19 seats in the parliament, with the centrist Democratic Party holding 9 seats in 3rd place and several other minor parties splitting the rest - among them, the European Party is a right-wing populist movement that may yet get additional lift, should things go from bad to worse over the week and the government collapses before the end of the month.
The PPWP is a Communist party, and it would not be at all surprising if Cyprus turned far left in the ensuing social distress that will certainly follow the freezing of the financial system. While the extreme right may also gain some visibility, it would not last very long.
In geopolitical terms, we still have to watch whether Cyprus might gravitate again towards Athens and be potenitally annexed, and how that trend might play out against Turkish Cyprus - the artificial republic forcibily created in 1974 by Turkey and solely recognized by Ankara - in the wider context of the geopolitical struggle between Greece and Turkey. Whether Cyprus will be a bargaining chip in their dealings remains to be seen, but this crisis most certainly offers an opportunity for both countries.