Obama vs Romney Polls: Obama Tanks Among Women and Independents


Just 47% of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably overall, down 7 percentage points from his recent peak in April, while 49% rate him unfavorably. He’s numerically underwater in this group for the first time since February.

The decline has occurred entirely among women registered voters – from 57%-39% favorable-unfavorable in April to a numerically negative 46%-50% now. That’s Obama’s lowest score among women voters – a focus of recent political positioning – in ABC/Post polls since he took office.

On top of that, according to CNN’s latest poll, Romney’s lead among independents has jumped in the last week from 3 points to 10 points today among likely voters.

Against that backdrop of new polling, there are more campaign ads being released targeting women voters.

Independent Women’s Voice is a 501(c)(4) nonpartisan, nonprofit organization for mainstream women and is the sister organization of the Independent Women’s Forum. IWV has a track record demonstrating that it uses resources wisely while effectively developing and delivering messages to independents and women, key blocs of citizens in 2010 and 2012.

IWV released an ad back in June called “Boyfriend.”

A good friend of mine worked with IVW on putting that ad together and after testing it, found that it was effective in moving the needle. An Ohio focus group moved from 44% disapproval of Obama to 62% after viewing the ad.

Apparently, it also got the attention of the RNC, who just released this ad today that’s eerily similar in its message.

You have to admit, both ads aren’t particularly venomous, even offering understanding about how Obama may have inspired them in 2008 and promised them a new direction for America and its politics. The pitch (and the message discipline) produced a reasonable tone and approach, one that tended to ask for unity rather than make a strident base-appeal rally.

Now contrast that with the abortion-palooza that’s the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

“I have NEVER heard this much about abortion as in that hall last night…” That’s according to Melinda Henneberger, who writes the "She the People" column for the Washington Post. She was responding to a post Matt Lewis wrote in which he argued that Democrats risk turning off undecided voters if their convention turns into “abortion-palooza.”

Even liberal columnist Margaret Carlson recently wrote on Bloomberg, “I hate to bring up abortion during the Democrats’ festivities, which are going so swimmingly, but I have a question. Why has the party removed the sentence ‘Abortion should be safe, legal, and rare’ from its platform? It was in the 2004 document but not in 2008’s or this year’s. Can’t Democrats just throw a crumb to the many millions who are pro-choice but not pro-abortion?” (Btw: kudos to Carlson for pointing out the difference).

There’s no doubt that one of the key demographics the Obama campaign is counting on come November is women and are keeping up the disingenuous “War on Women” rhetoric to scare more and more women voters into their corner. It’s also why they’re still trying to keep Sandra Fluke (remember her?) fresh in everyone’s minds.

But the entire convention is turning into a primal scream on abortion and contraception. Don’t be surprised if swing voters feel repelled by the spectacle. They may be breaking up with more than just Obama by the end of this week.