Election Predictions 2016: Who's leading, and who's expected to win?


With the presidential election fast approaching and the race tightening, the contest between former Secretary of State and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and her rival, Republican nominee Donald Trump, is about to come to a head. Current polls show Clinton with an edge over her rival, but her lead is narrower than it was this time last week.

The latest presidential polls

According to RealClearPolitics, the latest polls give Clinton, on average, a 2.8-point lead over Trump. A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted over the weekend showed Clinton with a 3-point lead over Trump. Polls don't automatically translate into results, but across the board, Clinton is maintaining a small national lead over Trump. She's also leading in many of the swing states she'll need in order to win. 

On Monday, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 78.1% chance of winning the presidency over Trump's 21.9% chance.

Evan Vucci/AP

Don't count Trump out

Despite polls showing Clinton with an edge over Trump, some experts are still predicting that Trump could win the election in what would be an historic upset. Allan J. Lichtman, a professor of history at American University who has correctly predicted 30 years of presidential elections, has been calling a Trump victory since September based on his own rubric of historical predictors, and, as of Friday, was still sticking to his prediction, the Washington Post reported. 

Lichtman may be in the minority in predicting a Trump win, but, with polls still showing a relatively close race, it's much too early to declare a Clinton victory.