Presidential Polls 2012: Obama Holds Onto Lead in 9 out of 10 Swing States Ahead of Debates


The latest election 2012 polls show that President Obama continues to hold onto his lead over GOP nominee Mitt Romney in nine of the ten battleground states. Real Clear Politics poll data suggests that Romney hangs onto North Carolina by four points and is gaining momentum in Florida, while Obama extends his lead in Nevada and New Hampshire. However, the race to the White House is still close in many key states, including Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. Here are the latest numbers, as we head into tonight's crucial presidential debate.


WeAskAmerica poll, gathered from September 25 to 27, shows Obama holding a three-point lead over Romney. The poll projects a 49-46 split in Obama's favor, with a 2.8% margin of error.


Three weeks ago, Obama held a steady three-point lead over Romney in the sunshine state. However, according to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, Romney now trails by one point. The poll predicts Obama winning 47% over Romney's 46%, with a 3.3% margin of error. A September 29 to 30 Gravis Marketing poll shows similar results of Obama's one point lead heading into tonight.


Iowa has remained Obama-leaning, according to a new WeAskAmerica poll. Results collected from September 25 to 27 estimate that Obama currently has about 48% of the votes, compared to Romney's 44%, with a 2.8% margin of error. The week before, a Des Moines Registrar poll also showed an Obama four-point lead over Romney.

North Carolina:

According to two recent polls, North Carolina is the only one of 10 battleground states in which Romney commands a lead over Obama. An October 2 Rasmussen poll suggests a 51-47 win for Romney. An ARG poll conducted from September 28 to 30 also said Romney leads by four points. However, a September 9 to October 1 SurveyUSA poll predicts an Obama win by two points. All three polls, however, has over a 4% margin of error.

New Hampshire:

September 27 to Sept. 30 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) reports that Obama commands a whopping 15-point lead over Romney, the highest current differential between the candidates of any swing state. An ARG poll two days prior suggest a 50-45 split, as opposed to the UNH's 54-39 prediction. Both polls have a 4% margin of error.


Last week, several polls suggest that there is a tight race between the two major candidates in Nevada. However, a September 25 to 27 WeAskAmerica poll shows that Obama vaulted to an 11-point lead over Romney. The poll predicts that Obama will get 53% of the votes, compared to 42% of votes for Romney, with a 3.1% margin of error.


A NBC/WSJ/Marist poll conducted from September 30 to October 1 predicts a 51-43 win for Obama, with a 3.2% margin of error.


Since February, Obama has retained the lead in Virginia in most Real Clear Politics polls. However, that gap between candidates has become progressively smaller since then. Currently, Obama holds a steady two-point lead, according to a recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, with a 3.1% margin of error.


The homestate of Romney's running mate has shown increasing favoritism towards Obama since September. According to a September 27 to 30 poll conducted by Marquette University, Obama has an 11 point lead over Romney. The poll predicted that Obama would win 53% of the votes, with a 3.3% margin of error.