'Pokémon Go' 10km Egg Hatching Chart: Odds calculated in massive new study


What can you expect from all those Pokémon Go eggs you walk kilometer after kilometer to hatch? A new chart, based on a very extensive study, may hold the answer to all your egg-hatching questions.

The Silph Road community member pablopang has posted the results of a Pokémon Go research project using data recorded from more than 330 players. The results are pretty much what you'd expect, especially where Lapras and Snorlax are concerned.

Mic/Pokémon Go

Pokémon Go Egg Chances: Drop rate for 10km eggs

Pablopang's research is different from other rare egg-hatch studies in that part of its purpose was to determine the percentage of rare egg drops, so the 133,547 eggs studied were of all three varieties.

According to pablopang's results, only 2.4% of the eggs collected were rare or 10-kilometer eggs. That works out to one in every 42 eggs.


Pokémon Go 10km Egg Chances: Not enough endgame Pokémon

According to pablopang's published data, things look pretty grim for anyone hoping to score a Lapras or Snorlax from an egg. Of the 133,547 eggs included in the study, only 0.29% hatched a Snorlax. Lapras hatch rates are even worse, with just 0.23% of the eggs resulting in the sea creature.

Dratini hatched from 0.35% of the eggs. Dratini evolves into Dragonair, which evolves into Dragonite. Dratini spawns are effectively endgame Pokémon spawns, as Dragonite is one of the best Pokémon in the game.

The only other Pokémon of note on the list, Chansey, is not an endgame Pokémon but received a significant boost during the combat balance update. It hatched from just 0.3% of all eggs studied.

Pablopang's study doesn't provide much hope for anyone who depends on 10-kilometer eggs for their star gym-battler Pokémon, but remember, hatching eggs also provides a healthy amount of stardust. Even if you don't get an endgame Pokémon from a rare egg, you're still getting the resources you need to power up the Pokémon you already have.

More Pokémon Go guides, tips, tricks and updates

Check out Mic's Pokémon Go tips and tricks. Here are guides on how to get stardust, how to determine how long it will take you to reach Level 40, the kind of Pokemon you get from 10km eggs, how to create new PokéStops, how to maximize your chances of catching Pokémon and how PokéStops distribute Pokémon eggs. Also check out how to catch Gen 2 baby Pokémon, our analysis of post-balance update Chansey and Rhydon and everything you need to know about finding the long-awaited Pokémon Ditto.