Oscars 2017: Best predictions from Gold Derby and other movie experts


The 89th Academy Awards will recognize the best of the best in film from the past year. On Sunday, actors, directors, producers, writers and a host of filmmakers will pack into the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, hoping to leave at the end of the night with a gold statue in tow. 

With the Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globe Awards and the various Guild awards behind us, several of the Oscar races are beginning to see the frontrunners pull away from the pack. But there are still some interesting categories up for grabs. 

For those who want a better idea of who may win the major categories at this Sunday's Oscars, experts from all over the web have been offering their take (Gold Derby aggregates many of the predictions on their site, all of which you can see here).

If you just want to see some of the predictions in the major categories, we have those for you below.

Best picture

Handout/Getty Images

While it may be too early to call this race finished, certainly there is a clear frontrunner: La La Land. Damien Chazelle's original musical received a record-tying 14 nominations, and if the following predictions on Gold Derby are to be believed, it will be running away with the night's top prize:

Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby — La La Land

Anne Thompson, Indiewire — La La Land

Bonnie Fuller, Hollywood Life — La La Land

Brian Truitt, USA Today — La La Land

Analytics-based FiveThirtyEight is also getting in on the action, with predictions derived from a point-based model that takes into account prior awards ceremonies. FiveThirtyEight's model has La La Land with a healthy lead over Moonlight

Best director

Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images

La La Land's Damien Chazelle seems to be the runaway favorite to win best director at the Academy Awards. After wins at the Critics' Choice Awards, DGA Awards and Golden Globes, it seems like only a matter of time before Chazelle gets to call himself an Oscar winner. Here are some of the predictions on Gold Derby

Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby — Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Anne Thompson, Indiewire — Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Bonnie Fuller, Hollywood Life — Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

FiveThirtyEight's model also has Chazelle with a commanding lead over Moonlight's Barry Jenkins, followed by Manchester by the Sea's Kenneth Lonergan. 

Best Actress 

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Just like the prior two categories, best actress seems to be La La Land's to lose. Emma Stone has been collecting plenty of awards for her brilliant turn in the musical, and most experts feel that she will soon add Oscar winner to her résumé. There are a few dissenting opinions, though, in this category. Here are some of the predictions from Gold Derby:

Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby — Emma Stone (La La Land)

Anne Thompson, Indiewire — Emma Stone (La La Land)

Bonnie Fuller, Hollywood Life — Emma Stone (La La Land)

Thelma Adams, Gold Derby — Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

Peter Travers, Rolling Stone — Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

FiveThirtyEight's model has Emma Stone as the clear favorite, with Isabelle Huppert and Natalie Portman (for Jackie) tied for second. 

Best actor

Christopher Polk/Getty Images

Finally, we come to a category that is still anybody's game. For quite a while, it seemed like Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck was the clear frontrunner for best actor. But now, following Denzel Washington's upset win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the tide may be turning. 

In fact, many of the expert picks on Gold Derby have shifted, with Washington now seen as the favorite. Check out a few below:

Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby — Denzel Washington (Fences)

Anne Thompson, Indiewire — Denzel Washington (Fences)

Bonnie Fuller, Hollywood Life — Denzel Washington (Fences)

Brian Truitt, USA Today — Denzel Washington (Fences)

Thelma Adams, Gold Derby — Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Peter Travers, Rolling Stone — Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Jack Mathews, Gold Derby — Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

FiveThirtyEight's model has Casey Affleck still as the favorite, with Denzel Washington a very close second. 

Best supporting actress

Chris Pizzello/AP

Viola Davis' win at the Oscars is all but a sure thing. She already has wins at the Critics' Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Golden Globes and BAFTA Awards for her supporting role in Fences. The predictions on Gold Derby show the experts are pretty sure she will be adding an Oscar to that list shortly. 

Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby — Viola Davis (Fences)

Anne Thompson, Indiewire — Viola Davis (Fences)

Bonnie Fuller, Hollywood Life — Viola Davis (Fences)

Brian Truitt, USA Today — Viola Davis (Fences)

FiveThirtyEight's model also has Viola Davis winning the award, with Manchester by the Sea's Michelle Williams a distant (like, really distant) second. 

Best supporting actor

Chris Pizzello/AP

While the best supporting actor category is not quite as locked up as best supporting actress, there is still a clear favorite: Moonlight's Mahershala Ali. Most of the expert picks on Gold Derby have Ali winning, but there are a few outliers. 

Tom O'Neil, Gold Derby — Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Anne Thompson, Indiewire — Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Bonnie Fuller, Hollywood Life — Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Brian Truitt, USA Today — Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Paul Sheehan, Gold Derby — Dev Patel (Lion)

Keith Simanton, IMDb — Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)

Mahershala Ali's win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards makes him the favorite in FiveThirtyEight's model, but Dev Patel's BAFTA win has him in second place. 

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