Latest Presidential Polls: Romney is Ahead Today, But Odds Show That Obama Will Win in 7 Days
Hurricane Sandy has claimed another victim. The Gallup polling organization has suspended polling for the last two days as a result of the storm. A statement of the website said, “Gallup will not conduct daily tracking surveys for a second night, Tuesday, Oct. 30, due to the ongoing effects of Superstorm Sandy and will continue to reassess the situation on a day-to-day basis. Gallup will provide an update on Wednesday about plans from that point forward.”
In the latest set of polls with a week before the election, the Real Clear Politics polling average has Romney leading by 0.9 points, and the Rasmussen daily tracking poll has Romney leading 49% to Obama’s 47%. Rasmussen’s 2012 Electoral College Board has Obama leading 237 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes for Romney. The Real Clear Politics battleground state board shows Obama leading 201 electoral votes to 191 electoral votes for Romney.
Nate Silver’s New York Times 538 Blog noted that Sandy will have an impact on polling. Not only has Gallup suspended polling, but the blog said that Investors’ Business Daily and Public Policy Polling also announced temporary suspensions in polling. The blog expects that further delays in polling will incur in the Northeastern region of the country.
A review of the national polls released on Monday shows Obama leading slightly and in the battleground states, the latest Rasmussen poll has Romney leading in Ohio.
Early voting was suspended in Maryland and Northern Virginia and there is still concern that Sandy will impact voter turnout in blue collar areas that normally vote Democratic. Huffington Post’s Matt Sledge observed that “this should have been a crucial moment for the campaigns of President Barack Obama Mitt Romney to put ballots in the bank and begin last-minute voter mobilization efforts.”
Gov. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, pledged to extend early voting hours in Virginia later in the week. Maryland canceled all early voting on Monday and Tuesday.
Odds makers continue to place their bets on Obama to win the election. Intrade gives Obama a 63.5% chance of being re-elected.
“The Betfair market gives Obama a 68% chance of re-election in the market to Romney,” says Mike Robb. Robb says the key swing state markets have Obama winning 6 of 8 swing states. Robb believes that if the odds are reflected in Tuesday’s election, Obama will win 305 electoral votes to 235 for Romney. Betfair lays the odds in the swing states as follows:
• Colorado: Obama 1.93 10/11
• Iowa: Obama 1.5 1/2
• Wisconsin: Obama 1.33 1/3
• Ohio: Obama 1.46 40/85
• Virginia: Obama 1.81 4/5
• New Hampshire: Obama 1.55 8/15
• Florida: Romney 1.48 40/85
• North Carolina: Romney 1.31 30/100
Nate Silver at the New York Times 538 Blog gives Obama a 73% chance of being re-elected. Silver said “Obama’s position declined slightly in the forecast on Monday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College decreasing to 72.9% from 74.6% on Sunday, and Mr. Romney’s increasing to 27.1% from 25.4%.”
Sports handicapper Danny Sheridan of Alabama is laying odds on Obama. Sheridan found Obama favored to win in 6 of 9 swing states including, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Sheridan favors Romney in Virginia, Florida and North Carolina. Sheridan is willing to put his money where his mouth is, he'll bet anyone any amount of money that Obama will win, with any of his proceeds going to charity. Someone get him the Donald’s number.