Presidential Polls 2012: Romney Momentum is Gone, Obama is Ahead Again With 4 Days Left


Mitt Romney has been riding the momentum from the first presidential debate for a month, but that momentum has now completely dissipated, and President Obama is leading again in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls. The RCP poll of polls aggregates the most important presidential polls and is likely to be a more reasonable assessment of where the race stands. The most important aspect of this poll is not that the president is leading, but that Romney's momentum has completely fallen off only four days before the election. 

This seems to indicate that America is slowly settling in with the President for the second term as opposed to pushing for a change in the White House. If the election were held today based on the most recent polls in each state, Obama would win the election with close to 290 Electoral College votes.

This potential electoral map gives the all-important state of Ohio to the president, but gives Romney Virginia and Florida. The president should hold onto Ohio as the map shows, but that he will also pick up Virginia or Florida, but not likely both. The Virginia vote has become a battle of the sexes, with women overwhelmingly supporting the Obama, and men overwhelmingly supporting Romney. In Florida, the Obama campaign's ground game is likely to make the race much closer than it appears in the polls. 

Beyond all of the nervous energy and anxiety surrounding the campaigns as this race comes to a close, the reality is that the race is still Obama's to lose and Romney's (uphill climb) to win. If Obama wins the election with 303 electoral college votes as I predict, all of the rhetoric about this being one of the closest campaigns in modern history will seem foolish.