Ohio Polls: Nate Silver 538 Predictions Have Obama Winning Ohio and a Second Term


On the last day of the campaign, both presidential candidates, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, will be making a desperate dash to several key swing states for one last chance to make their case to voters headed to the polls tomorrow. This last minute “blitz” will take Romney to Virginia and Florida and to the crucial state of Ohio, a state critical for his electoral path for victory.  Obama will be traveling through swing states in the Midwest, finishing in Iowa, a state where he currently holds a slight lead.  At this point, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a near 90% chance of winning, and other poll aggregators, such as the Princeton Election Consortium, give Obama probabilities of victory of over 95%. 

One cause of concern for the Romney campaign is Obama’s lead in Ohio, where Obama has maintained a 2-3 point lead throughout the last days of the campaign.  Without a win in Ohio, Romney’s shot at the presidency is very slim. Alternate electoral paths to victory, such as a win in Wisconsin are possible, but again, remain unlikely given Obama’s current leads in most of the nine swing states. In Wisconsin, for example, Obama holds a 2-3 point lead, a margin that represents a significant hurdle for Romney in the last day of the campaign. Even in Virginia, a swing state that Romney must win in any scenario, Obama has a slight advantage.

That’s not to say that either candidate has taken taken anything for granted. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the small Ohio county of Hamilton, the two campaigns have poured $33 million into TV ads alone, targeting a number of still undecided voters as well as energizing a final push to get voters to the polls. Meanwhile, despite a Republican lead in Florida, the Obama campaign continues to appeal to minority voters in an attempt to erode Romney’s lead.

On a separate front, the early voting numbers do not look good for Romney. Obama has taken strong leads in Iowa and Nevada, the latter state being an important stepping-stone in Romney’s path to victory.

Thus far, the data overwhelmingly points towards an Obama victory tomorrow. Stay tuned to PolicyMic for more key updates and Election Day coverage.