Latest Presidential Polls: Obama Will Win Because of Intrade Predictions and the First Lady Bake Off


With Election Day panic setting in, we are all collectively waiting for the results with bated breath.

Since we are all super nervous, paranoid, and on edge (maybe that’s just me), here are some fun election predictors to take your mind off the seriousness of the election and the constantly fluctuating poll numbers.

For those of you who are sports inclined, a previous article I wrote details the three sports-related election predictors that show mixed results for this year's presidential election.

Below are five non sports-related election predictors that have worked well in the past.

This year, all five of these well-known indicators suggest a victory for President Obama!

Share and enjoy.

1. How Kids Vote

RULE: Whichever candidate kids vote for in the Scholastic Student Vote determines who wins the presidential election tomorrow. This predictor has worked since 1940 and has only failed twice (in 1948 and 1960). This rule makes sense – kids typically vote how their parents vote.

This past October, kids voted in favor of President Obama with a 51% to 45% margin.

VERDICT: President Obama

2. First Lady Bake Off

RULE: Family Circle hosts a cookie bake-off every presidential election between the two potential first ladies. The bake-off began in 1992 and has predicted the election winner for four out of five elections (Cindy McCain’s oatmeal-butterscotch cookies beat Michelle Obama’s lemon and orange shortbread cookies in 2008). 

This year, Michelle Obama’s white and dark chocolate chip cookies bested Ann Romney’s M&M cookies 51.5 to 48.5% margin. This margin was the magazine’s closest margin ever with Michelle beating Ann by a mere 287 votes. These close margins sound a lot like how these election results will pan out …

VERDICT: President Obama

3. Halloween Masks Sales

RULE: Whichever candidate has more Halloween masks sold in his resemblance is the likely winner of the election 

Spirit Halloween, the country's largest Halloween retailer, indicates that Obama masks have beat Romney masks by a 60% to 40% margin. This rule has worked since 1996. Though one would expect people to buy the masks of the candidates they would not vote for since, theoretically, that would be scarier and funnier.

VERDICT: President Obama

4. Intrade Prediction Website

Intrade is a prediction market whose members predict outcomes on non sports-related events. Intrade doesn’t have a history of predicting election winners but its results have been used by countless major news sources like CNN, NYT, FOX, colleges and universities, etcetera.

Currently, Intrade has President Obama polling at a 67% chance of winning re-election and has Romney at a 33.1% chance of the winning the election.

Intrade also suggests that President  Obama has a 59.5% chance of winning the popular vote by 0.5 percentage points or more, while Romney has a 38.7% chance of doing the same.

VERDICT: President Obama

5. Iowa Electronic Markets

The Iowa Electronic Markets are an exchange similar to Intrade with history of accurately predicting elections since 1988 (with the exception of 2000). It is run by the University of Iowa's Henry B. Tippie College of Business professors. 

As of Sunday, the IEM has President Obama with a major lead over Romney with a roughly 75.1 to 25% price margin for receiving the plurality of the popular vote.

The IEM has President Obama maintaining a slight lead (51.1%) over Romney (48%) based on vote shares between these two candidates. 

VERDICT: President Obama

By the way, don’t forget to vote and take your friends too!