Florida Election Results 2012: Obama Wins Florida Too, Nate Silver Was Right All Along
It's official Obama won Florida too. Most importantly, New York Times' statistician Nate Silver, who delighted Democrats and was derided by Republicans because of his wild predictions in the run up to the election, has been totally vindicated.
Even Obama aides were cautious about the supposedly close state of the race in the days and hours leading to Election Day. Not Nate Silver who in his (in) famous FiveThirtyEight blog keep predicting an Obama landslide. He was right the president got reelected. Furthermore, what at the moment seemed like a wild prediction — that even the more enthusiastic Democrats were skeptical about — ended up being correct.
Silver's win, along with the subsequent meltdown of formerly respected conservative pollsters — such as Fox News' Karl Rove — put the Democratic wonder boy among the nation's most respected — and, surely, most demanded — statisticians (hey, I'd take 30% of a split lottery ticket if he accepts to predict the winner number).
Actually, Nate Silver's wild 2012 Election prediction doesn't just put him among the nation's best pollsters. It creates a league of its own where the author of 538 is now the highest standard: not only will pollsters and statisticians be expected to predict elections accurately, now their scenarios will have to be wild and defy the conventional wisdom by miles. These are the kind of predictions that lead to New York Times' blackouts on Election Night (because of the unprecedented traffic Silver brought in through his blog). And the ones that make instant celebrities both loved and hated by passionate political pundits nationwide.