Today in Trump’s America: How will Kavanaugh’s confirmation impact the midterms?


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Good morning from Emily Singer at Mic.

Here’s what’s happening in Trump’s America:

• It’s another day of travel for President Trump, who on Monday heads to Florida to speak at the International Association of Chiefs of Police annual convention in Orlando.

About the weekend: After Kavanaugh’s confirmation, Democrats vow political revenge

Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court has political minds wondering: How will it impact midterm elections?

The Supreme Court battle seems to have ignited both Democrats and Republicans into excitement to vote for their respective party candidates on Nov. 6. But with just 29 days until voters head to the polls, the biggest question is whether the enthusiasm will last until Election Day.

Experts seem to think Republican excitement, which is now fueled by elation that their party notched a win, is momentary and will fade as the election draws near, while Democratic enthusiasm — which is fueled by anger — will sustain itself.

“Anger is electoral rocket fuel,” Republican strategist Liam Donovan tweeted, but added that for Republicans it’s “harder to sustain when you get what you want.”

Stu Rothenberg, a nonpartisan political handicapper, told Mic in September he too thinks GOP enthusiasm will fade before Nov. 6.

“A month from now, the perception will be the Republicans control the House, the Senate, the White House and the Supreme Court,” Rothenberg said. “Republicans will feel like they have won, and that kind of mood and environment tends to make those voters content, feeling like the fight is over — we won. So I don’t think that Republican enthusiasm will match Democratic enthusiasm following this confirmation.”

For now, Democrats are still favored to win control of the House, while an an extremely favorable Senate map indicates Republicans are favored to keep their majority.

Polls will likely be released this week that will shed more light on Kavanaugh’s electoral impact. But those polls are also likely to change, as 29 days is a lifetime in politics, and some new political fight could impact the ultimate outcome on Election Day.

Today in Trump’s America: Climate change report predicts environmental crisis as early as 2040

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report Monday that shows climate change is a dire problem, saying by 2040 global temperatures could rise as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial temperatures. This would cause massive food shortages from drought and wildfires as well as dying coral reefs that could lead to coastal flooding.

The rise in temperature would lead to $54 trillion worth of loss to the global economy, the New York Times reported.

Authors of the report said it’s possible to stave off the damage by implementing policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions, such as a carbon tax.

“This report gives policymakers and practitioners the information they need to make decisions that tackle climate change while considering local context and people’s needs. The next few years are probably the most important in our history,” Debra Roberts, the cochair of the group that published the study, said in a news release.

Passing a carbon tax in the United States is unlikely with Trump in the White House, though. The president has loosened environmental regulations across the country since taking office and pulled the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement.

And the rest...

Taylor Swift finally gets political: The pop star has gotten flack in the past for not speaking out about politics during the 2016 election, leading some to wonder whether she was a Republican who backed Trump.

On Sunday, though, Swift posted a message on Instagram saying she will cast her ballot in the November midterms in Tennessee for Democratic Senate nominee Phil Bredesen and Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper.

“Running for Senate in the state of Tennessee is a woman named Marsha Blackburn. As much as I have in the past and would like to continue voting for women in office, I cannot support Marsha Blackburn,” Swift wrote in her Instagram post. “Her voting record in Congress appalls and terrifies me. She voted against equal pay for women. She voted against the Reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, which attempts to protect women from domestic violence, stalking and date rape. She believes businesses have a right to refuse service to gay couples. She also believes they should not have the right to marry. These are not MY Tennessee values. I will be voting for Phil Bredesen for Senate and Rep. Jim Cooper for House of Representatives.”