Odds provided by Bovada.lv
Best Original Screenplay
Breese's Pick: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty (+200)
This remains one of the tighest races of the night. On the outside looking in, we have the screenplays for Flight and Moonrise Kingdom. Flight is a longshot to steer clear of, considering John Gatins hasn't won at any of the other award ceremonies (Satellite Awards, Critics' Choice and NAACP Awards). Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola's screenplay for Moonrise Kingdom garnered plenty of attention last spring and offers plenty of value at (+2200), if you're looking to back a longshot.
Then we have the three favorites coming from Django Unchained (-120), Zero Dark Thirty (+200) and Amour (+275). Michael Haneke was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film in 2009 for White Ribbon, but was not nominated for his screenplay of the film. Tarantino won an Academy Award for his Pulp Fiction screenplay back in 1995, and Boal took home the Oscar in this category just three years ago for his Hurt Locker screenplay.
All three have a legitimate chance, although Boal and Tarantino seem to have more momentum as we head into Oscar night. I'll go with Boal in a slight upset over Tarantino, due to the compelling backstory of the screenplay's creation.