Self-referred "progressive candidate" NYC Public Advocate Bill de Blasio has roughly 39% of the Democratic electorate poised to support him, just shy of the 40% he needs to win the primary without triggering a runoff election between him and rival candidates former City Comptroller Bill Thompson and City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.
A Quinnipiac poll has de Blasio leading with 39% of the vote, with Thompson trailing behind by 14 points at 25% and Quinn a distant third at just 18%. That same poll has 8% undecided and 18% willing to change their minds, with a 3.5% margin of error. This is slightly less favorable for de Blasio than a Sept. 3 poll by the same agency, which gave the candidate a commanding 43% lead.
An NBC New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll found de Blasio slipping further, to a still-respectable 36%. Meanwhile, a PPP poll finds him at 38%, while Thompson and Quinn trail at 18% and 13% respectively.
"Will de Blasio avoid a runoff or will we have a battle of the Bills? Flip a coin," quipped Maurice Carroll, Quinnipiac's director of polling.
In all polls, Anthony Weiner remains a distant fourth, with virtually no chance of securing a place in a potential runoff at somewhere around 8% — or, indeed, even performing well enough to secure a political future. Another candidate, ethically-plagued New York City Comptroller John Liu, is poised to do somewhat less than Weiner, especially if he brings a "substantial chunk" of underpolled minority groups to the polls.
Either way, it seems like any of de Blasio's opponents would score a victory just by bringing him into a runoff.