Why is Mitt Romney Leading Barack Obama in Polls?


Will Americans believe anything?

Perhaps that question is best answered when rephrased, “Will Americans believe anything depending on the source?” As such let us begin examing that contention by considering the Gallup poll released on April 17 which highlighted a 47% to 45% lead by Mitt Romney over President Obama. 

Today’s information technology has made the source of information a key factor in any attempt to gain knowledge of our environment. As such, the historical tradition for accuracy of the Gallup polling organization carries a significant level of credibility with the American public.

“Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me,” is today as an important wise tale as ever. But America has also raised the value of information accuracy, or at least perceived accuracy on new levels.

Americans continue to hold dear a consensus of information demanding validation of positions before achieving closure. The fact the Gallup closely matches with the Fox News Poll of April 11th showing Romney leading Obama 46% - 44%, adds a secondary reason for Americans to believe the information.

Americans' trust of information largely depends on who is presenting the information.

Unfortunately, if you follow the money you find Americans are being force-fed information all too often in the best interest of the content provider, with that content provider's own slant included. .

While all polling organizations will underline that their results are skewed to attract further observation by the public, historical analysis of this data often supportsthat some media slants exisit.

Less than a month ago, the majority of National Polls showed Obama with up to a 20% lead among Latinos, and a 13% to 18% lead among awomen voters.

You might then logically ask, “What changed in the past month to significantly alter the choice of American voters to place Romney in the lead over Obama?”

Polling pundits will note that theperception of any candidate who has become the eventual party nominee generates a short-term approval bump, particularly among Independents and disenfranchised members of the incumbent’s party. This historically validated increase in support would account for a portion of Gallup and Fox’s recent polling results.

Another factor worthy of consideration is the consensus factor, or the explanation thatreflects man’s desire to feel part of the group which controls its destiny.

In this case, it is not Romney’s appeal leading to his approval rating as much as the consensus factor among voters that disapprove of the country’s direction under Obama and desire to be part of the process to change that perception.

Again we are brought back to the original prompt, “Will America believe anything?”

The closing observation on that question is, America continues to believe what it wishes to be true as their sudden rise in polling for Romney indicates.

In 2008, America elected Obama largely on their belief he offered up an opportunity for, “hope and change” which the nation rallied around in support.

In 2012, the opportunity for Romney to win election appears to rest fully onthe prompt, “Will America believe anything?”