Presidential Polls 2012: Obama Will Ride Electoral College Advantage and Key Endorsements to Victory on Tuesday


The latest presidential polls add up to a solid position for President Obama. We see this prior to the impacts from Mayor Bloomberg's endorsement, or the impacts of the president's expert leadership during Hurricane Sandy, which may move voters towards President Obama.  

Real Clear Politics election 2012 state polls show President Obama ahead everywhere it counts.  Every poll released Thursday with the exception of Rasmussen Reports polls showed President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney. Out of a total of 12 new polls all had President Obama up except for the three Rasmussen polls released. The Rasmussen polls actually show the opposite results as all others. Is there a heavy Republican skew in their results?  

While CNN/Opinion research shows Obama ahead by two in Colorado, Rasmussen shows Romney up by three. In Iowa, Rasmussen shows Romney up by one, while Thursday's NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows Barack Obama up by six. In Wisconsin Rasmussen shows a tie, while NBC/WSJ/Marist shows Obama up three, and WPR/St. Norbert polls show Obama up by nine.        

The outcome of the election is not based on popular vote, it is based on the Electoral College count. What happens if you use the results of every poll except Rasmussen to form an electoral college total? In a race where 270 are needed to win, Romney finishes with a weak 206 and President Obama wins in a landslide with 310. Take a look:

Now, who knows? Maybe Rasmussen gets it right and every single other polling organization is biased, skewed, favors Democrats, or has failed methodology. I see that as a stretch. Maybe, I'm just biased myself, and see the page of results favoring President Obama. Fair enough. If you look at the results and see that other polls support the validity of Rasmussen, I'm OK with that. Today, Rasmussen seems to show the opposite of all other state polls. 

President Obama has enough of an edge here that I'm starting to sense that he will win. Given the endorsements or positive remarks from former Republican Governor Charlie Christ, General Colin Powell, and Republican Governor Chris Christie, which I covered yesterday, more people will now feel okay casting their vote for President Obama. While endorsements won't sway the entire election, people who don't follow politics may find it very informative if Republicans who have worked with President Obama praise his leadership. Add to that Mayor Bloomberg's recent endorsement of President Obama.

Bloomberg was specific in his endorsement of Barack Obama. Bloomberg's core concerns were climate change and Mitt Romney's reversal on all issues. In support of Obama he says,"President Barack Obama has taken major steps to reduce our carbon consumption." And later concludes,"when I step into the voting booth, I think about the world I want to leave my two daughters, and the values that are required to guide us there." He concludes with support of the President's successful Race to the Top education program, states that Supreme Court vacancies are sure to arise and we must protect a woman's right to choose. Read more on that here.   

Of Romney Bloomberg says, "If the 1994 or 2003 version of Mitt Romney were running for president, I may well have voted for him." In specific he writes, "in the past he (Romney) has also taken sensible positions on immigration, illegal guns, abortion rights and health care. But he has reversed course on all of them, and is even running against the health care model he signed into law in Massachusetts."  

This is dangerous because Romney is dividing Americans along deep fissures that could erupt into larger conflict, where instead, we need solutions. When Romney tells an audience that he thinks climate change is false, he goes against science and misleads people. Then, he tells another audience he believes the Earth is warming and humans are contributing, because they already believe that, Romney is using his leadership to divide. collects these flip-flops so you can see them together.  Take a look at Romney from two speeches on climate change that were four months apart:

It makes me question, do people like Romney because when he is in the room with them he tells them what they want to hear? Is that what we want from a leader? Someone who just tells us what we want to hear and then does whatever he wants?

Bloomberg might like this 2006 version of Romney explaining why the health care individual mandate is essential to getting everyone covered and lowering costs:

I cover the flip flop on health care more fully here. President Obama hired Romney's team to write the national Affordable Care Act. They based the national law on the most successful elements of Romneycare. Take a look at Romney's former team now as he attacks everything he once stood for:

This is dangerous. This impacts people's lives. 30 million people more will receive health care because of this law and Romney attacks it because the polls say it is unpopular. It may help Romney get elected, but every good idea from both sides for increasing those covered and lowering the costs of health care are in this bill. If you feel a little confused by what is in the law visit, everything is explained fully.

This video captures all the issues Mitt Romney has flipped on in one place: 

Bloomberg is right about President Obama and Mitt Romney. I agree with Bloomberg. So, with the Electoral Vote leaning in President Obama's favor, a wave of new endorsements, and Bloomberg reminding everyone that Romney has reversed every position he's ever held, I think Obama's strengths are highlighted, Romney's faults are highlighted, and leading up to the election this is what people have in mind. The only poll that really counts is the one that happens on November 6th.